NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
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Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS01 KWNS 170558
SWODY1
SPC AC 170557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of wind or hail are expected across
parts of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon, and across the central and
southern High Plains from late afternoon through evening.
...Synopsis...
A belt of moderate upper level winds will stretch from the northern
Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast while generally
lax zonal flow remains over the central and southern Plains. At the
surface, a stationary front will remain from the mid MS Valley
eastward into southern New England, with ample moisture to the south
supporting scattered storms.
...Southeast TX...
Areas of storms will affect this region early in the day, with an
outflow boundary near the middle TX Coast. Areas ahead of the
outflow may experience strong wind gusts, and marginal/elevated hail
is possible behind the boundary. In general, the severe threat will
decrease during the day.
...Northeast CO into central NE...
A weak area of low pressure will develop over northeast CO this
afternoon, with easterly surface winds across NE near a stationary
front. Strong heating beneath 500 mb temperatures near -10 C will
create steep lapse rates and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg. This will favor
large hail and damaging outflow winds as storms develop near the low
and along the boundary. Winds aloft will be weak, thus the threat
area will not expand very far east during the evening.
...Eastern NM into west TX...
Mid 60s F dewpoints will spread into far west TX as a boundary
stalls and eventually returns north. Strong heating will lead to
substantial instability along with light but veering winds with
height. This will support scattered cellular development with large
hail likely by late afternoon, with merging outflows supporting a
wind threat as storms move into TX. An isolated storm with very
large hail cannot be ruled out over the Davis mountains.
...Eastern KY and TN to the Delmarva...
In the wake of early day activity, destabilization will again occur
along and south of an east-west boundary roughly from the OH River
into far southern PA. Despite generally rising heights aloft, a weak
disturbance will emerge across the OH Valley, enhancing lift.
However, the most unstable air mass will be farther east into VA, MD
and DE where MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg is possible. Sporadic marginal
hail and localized damaging wind gusts are possible.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 06/17/2019
$$
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