NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 140447
SWODY1
SPC AC 140445

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over northern Ontario will move northeast into
northern Quebec while an upstream disturbance over Alberta moves
quickly southeastward into the Upper Midwest.  In the low levels, a
surface low initially over eastern MT will develop and deepen as it
moves eastward and reach the Twin Cities by early Tuesday morning. 
Farther south, a zonal-flow regime will encompass the southern
states.  A residual surface frontal zone draped over the central
Gulf Coast will move little but moistening in the low to mid levels
will aid in weak elevated buoyancy developing during the day. 
Isentropic ascent and MUCAPE 250-1000 J/kg will favor isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf Coast states to the
GA coast.  A plume of mid-level moisture and associated poor lapse
rates associated convection over northwest Mexico Sunday night will
overspread the Gulf Coast and limit destabilization and storm
intensity.

..Smith/Wendt.. 10/14/2019

$$