NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 140544
SWODY1
SPC AC 140543

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal risk for strong to severe storms may persist during the
morning across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula before
the threat dissipates by late morning.

...FL Peninsula...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Appalachians this
morning will quickly move northeast into New England and the western
Atlantic by early Sunday.  Before this disturbance and large-scale
forcing for ascent becomes substantially displaced from FL, a
lingering risk for thunderstorms will maximize during the morning
from west-central FL northeast to near Cape Canaveral.  A seasonably
moist/marginally unstable airmass, characterized by upper 60s to
around 70 degrees F dewpoints, and sufficiently strong vertical
speed shear will yield a conditional risk for a few invigorated
storms (12-15 UTC).  A brief tornado cannot be ruled out along with
an isolated damaging gust before veering low-level flow and
weakening convergence lead to storm weakening/lower storm coverage
by midday from Lake Okeechobee southward.

..Smith/Bentley.. 12/14/2019

$$