NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
Day 1 Outlook | Day 2 Outlook | Day 3 Outlook | Days 4-8 Outlook |
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Forecast Discussion |
000 ACUS01 KWNS 190518 SWODY1 SPC AC 190516 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 $$