NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


886 
ACUS01 KWNS 272120
SWODY1
SPC AC 272118

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

No changes were made from the existing Day1 outlook.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020/

...West TX/OK...
A deepening upper low over southeast AZ will track slowly eastward
today into the southern High Plains.  Widespread low-level warm
advection will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms over west
TX and much of OK, with much of this precipitation atop sub-freezing
surface temperatures.

...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle...
Tropical Storm Zeta is moving offshore and away from the Yucatan
Peninsula today.  An increasingly moist and marginally unstable air
mass will spread inland tonight across the central Gulf Coast
region, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms after
midnight.  The outer bands of the system are forecast to remain
primarily offshore tonight, with an increasing severe risk in parts
of this area tomorrow.

$$