NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 270539
SWODY1
SPC AC 270537

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of central and
southern Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with
Hurricane Ian.

...Synopsis...
A fairly amplified upper-level pattern will exist across the CONUS
today. A broad upper trough will be positioned within the lower
Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A large
western ridge will shift eastward into the High Plains with another
shortwave trough impacting the Northwest. At the surface, a cold
front will be situated in the northern Gulf into northern Florida
and arcing northeastward just off the eastern coastline. Per the
latest NHC forecast, Hurricane Ian will continue to move
north-northeastward closer to the western Florida coast by early
Wednesday.

...Central/Southern Florida...
Ahead of the cold front that is not expected to move out of north
Florida, ample tropical moisture will already be in place across
central and southern Florida. This very moist airmass will not need
much heating to promote on the order of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level
wind fields/shear will increase through the day and into the evening
as Ian approaches. Given the track of Ian, perhaps multiple bands of
semi-discrete convection will impact parts of central and southern
Florida. Enlarged low-level hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will
support a threat for a few tornadoes.

..Wendt/Darrow.. 09/27/2022

$$