NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 0100Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 190518
SWODY1
SPC AC 190516

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to 
NM during the period.  A mid-level ridge will extend northward from
northern CA into the Pacific Northwest.  Farther east, broad
cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest
southeastward through the East Coast.  Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening
across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners.  Surface high pressure
centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead
to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas.

..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

$$