NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
Day 1 Outlook | Day 2 Outlook | Day 3 Outlook | Days 4-8 Outlook |
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Forecast Discussion |
000 ACUS01 KWNS 221224 SWODY1 SPC AC 221222 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Two areas of more confident thunder potential are apparent, mainly this afternoon into early evening. First, a shortwave impulse moving southeast from British Columbia in conjunction with a steep low to mid-level lapse rate environment will be supportive of isolated thunderstorms across the northern Intermountain West. The other is downstream of a positive-tilt upper trough over the Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from northern AZ to CO. Less confident thunder potential is apparent over the southern Sierra NV mountains and KS to the southern Great Plains. For the latter region, a stout EML should largely inhibit thunderstorm development until the D2 period. Highly elevated parcels with scant buoyancy might support low-probability thunder along the edge of this stout EML across the southern KS vicinity towards the end of the period. ..Grams.. 04/22/2021 $$