NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 271620
SWODY1
SPC AC 271618

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today over central Texas and
vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes
possible.

...TX...
An upper low is present today over northeast TX, with a band of
stronger northwesterly flow aloft extending from northwest into
southeast TX.  Model guidance suggests that mid level heights will
rise through the day, but that several smaller-scale vorticity
maxima are rotating around the upper low and will affect central TX.
These will lead to clusters of intense thunderstorms from early
afternoon through evening.

A few storms have already begun to form south of the Dallas-Ft Worth
area.  More widespread storms will develop by mid afternoon as the
air mass continues to moisten/destabilize.  Low level winds will not
be particularly strong, but deep layer shear will be favorable for
organized/rotating storms.  This combined with MLCAPE values of 2500
J/kg will pose a risk of very large hail.  Damaging wind potential
should increase during the evening as storms congeal and spread
toward the middle/upper TX Gulf Coast.

...Gulf Coast States...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is in place today from
LA/MS eastward into parts of AL/FL/GA.  A weak upper trough off the
LA coast will lift northeastward today, providing subtle lift across
the region and helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms.  Mid and
upper level winds are stronger than yesterday, which may help the
more intense storms to organize and pose a risk of locally
strong/damaging wind gusts.

...SC/NC...
TS Bertha has moved inland over SC, and will continue to drift
slowly northward.  The envelope of stronger low-level winds is
small, and the convective nature of storms have shown little
tendency for cellular structures thus far.  Nevertheless, will
maintain a narrow corridor of MRGL risk for brief tornadoes through
the afternoon and evening where CAM solutions suggest there is some
potential.

..Hart/Bentley.. 05/27/2020

$$