NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
|
|
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
|
|
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
|
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS01 KWNS 270539
SWODY1
SPC AC 270537
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of central and
southern Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with
Hurricane Ian.
...Synopsis...
A fairly amplified upper-level pattern will exist across the CONUS
today. A broad upper trough will be positioned within the lower
Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A large
western ridge will shift eastward into the High Plains with another
shortwave trough impacting the Northwest. At the surface, a cold
front will be situated in the northern Gulf into northern Florida
and arcing northeastward just off the eastern coastline. Per the
latest NHC forecast, Hurricane Ian will continue to move
north-northeastward closer to the western Florida coast by early
Wednesday.
...Central/Southern Florida...
Ahead of the cold front that is not expected to move out of north
Florida, ample tropical moisture will already be in place across
central and southern Florida. This very moist airmass will not need
much heating to promote on the order of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level
wind fields/shear will increase through the day and into the evening
as Ian approaches. Given the track of Ian, perhaps multiple bands of
semi-discrete convection will impact parts of central and southern
Florida. Enlarged low-level hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will
support a threat for a few tornadoes.
..Wendt/Darrow.. 09/27/2022
$$
Lake Huron Weather ©
