NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 221939
SWODY1
SPC AC 221937

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Discussion...
No change is needed to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 01/22/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/

...Southeast Texas...
Large-scale trough amplification will occur through tonight over the
south-central CONUS, with an embedded southern-stream shortwave
trough expected to move southeastward from the southern High Plains
to east Texas by early Thursday. In response, weak
southeast-transitional surface wave development is expected across
northwest/central Texas and eventually southeast Texas in tandem
with a weak cold front/inverted trough.

At the same time, gradual air mass modification will occur over the
western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast through tonight.
Rain-cooled continental trajectories will persist in most areas as
at least scattered precipitation will remain semi-persistent over
inland areas to the north of an inland-advancing warm front and
related modifying warm/moist sector. 

Aided by a moderately strong low-level jet, wind profiles near
coastal southeast Texas will be conducive for supercells this
evening as forcing for ascent/thermodynamic characteristics trend
more favorable for deeper convection. However, thinking continues to
be that the warm/moist sector will largely remain offshore, with
surface inhibition increasing and elevated convection more likely
with northward extent inland. This should focus any supercell
potential over the waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight.

$$