NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 280531
SWODY1
SPC AC 280529

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley...

Upper ridging is expected to hold across the Gulf Basin Saturday
with broad height rises forecast across the Gulf States. Latest
satellite imagery suggests one notable short-wave trough is digging
southeast across NV and this feature will translate into the
southern Rockies before deamplifying as it ejects into the mid MS
Valley late in the period. Another significant, low-latitude
short-wave trough will approach south TX late in the period. In both
cases these features are not expected to provide appreciable
large-scale forcing to a region (east TX/lower MS Valley) that will
experience significant moistening through the day1 period.

The northerly short wave will encourage a strengthening low-level
jet over the Arklatex later today before translating into the TN
Valley during the overnight hours. Remnant weak low-level warm
advection will persist across east TX/lower MS Valley which should
aid convective development, primarily during the latter half of the
period. Latest model guidance suggests ample buoyancy will develop
across this region as modified Gulf air mass advances inland ahead
of a surging cold front that will extend from southeast MO-northeast
TX by 29/12z. Forecast soundings suggest updrafts will likely remain
elevated, but there is some potential for small hail as buoyancy
increases after midnight. At this time it appears instability will
prove a bit too meager to warrant probabilities for severe hail (>1
inch).

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/28/2023

$$