NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 250048
SPC AC 250047

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z


The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from
central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind,
damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible.

...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight...
A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this
evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday
morning.  An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary
layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the
Dodge City evening raob.  Models show storm development to increase
primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ
strengthens.  Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is
expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into
early Sunday morning.  Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the
activity this evening into the overnight hours.

...ND this evening...
A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus
for thunderstorm development this evening.  Adequate instability
east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this
evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall
storm intensity by late evening.

..Smith.. 08/25/2019