National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
758
FXUS63 KAPX 281652
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1252 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very good shower chances late tonight into Thursday morning.
A few t-storms possible late tonight.
- After tonight, relatively quiet and mild weather persists into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Pattern Synopsis: A rather flat southwest to northeast oriented
flow regime is in place to start the forecast period. An impulse
embedded within this flow will track mainly across the northern
tier of states/southern Canada, which will drag a cold front
through the Upper Great Lakes region later tonight into early
Thursday.
Behind the above mentioned disturbance, heights generally build
across much of eastern North America into early next week. A
stronger, slow moving, potentially cutoff trof will approach the
Great Lakes region after Monday, but model agreement in the
details with this system is not very good right now. There is
still plenty of time to get the details with this system ironed
out.
Forecast Details: Very mild conditions for late October linger
into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers
and possibly a thunderstorm are expected along/ahead of the
front after midnight tonight into early Thursday. The convection
will be elevated with a southwesterly low-level jet as high as
50 kts. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep as well ahead of
the front so some of the showers may be robust where they occur.
The weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet should result in
diminishing coverage/intensity of precipitation with eastward
extent.
Not a whole lot of weather of note through the weekend in the
wake of the front. Temperatures cool behind the front, although
still a little warmer than normal, but warm again after Friday
as upper-level heights rise and southerly low-level flow
returns. Rain chances start to return Monday night as a
stronger, but currently low confidence system approaches.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
VFR expected till after 6z and more likely closer to 9-10z, but
could see visby drops with any SHRA, which should develop after 4-
6z. TSRA possible after 5-7z thru around 10-12z, esp for TVC/MBL;
have included in tafs attm though this may be too aggressive. Not
impossible a few sites could get fog immediately after sundown
(esp PLN/APN) before more clouds/winds move in. Prevailing winds
from S 10-15kts overnight; LLWS expected with SW winds at or
above 1500-2000ft increasing toward 40kts by 3-5z and 45-55kts by 4-
7z, lasting till front crosses the area around 11-14z.
Could be some increased gustiness during the early morning (esp a
few hours before/after the front and particularly for PLN/CIU).
Winds turn to W to WNW behind front for remainder of TAF period with
a period of IFR/MVFR cigs, esp for CIU and PLN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...FEF
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
