National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
220
FXUS63 KAPX 110711
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very warm today with heat indices in the 90s, esp. across NE Lower
MI.
- Strong to severe storms likely late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, tornadoes, large hail, and heavy
rain are all possible.
- Periods of showers/storms likely through the period, esp.
Saturday and Sunday, with much cooler air on the way for the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Broad troughing across western/central North America...with multiple
axes/perturbations embedded in the flow...most noteworthy at 0z/11:
a digging shortwave over MT on the nose of a NWly 120kt upper jet,
and a lifting shortwave axis from Manitoba to IA/WI. Sharp ridging
ahead of this latter feature from the Upper Great Lakes into
Ontario/Quebec...stretching generally into eastern Canada, with an
embedded perturbation over western Quebec. Very warm beneath this
broad upper ridge, with 850mb temps in the +16-20C range across the
bulk of the Upper Midwest, even up into Ontario...and excellent
return flow through the mid-low levels into the region aiding in the
juicy airmass here (dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F as of
0z...with pwats on the 0z/11 sounding of 1.57in, well above normal).
Some steeper lapse rates aloft, combined with the very warm air
mass, helping to keep things unstable in the region (1899J/kg of
CAPE on the 0z/11 sounding at APX ahead of the evening convection).
Occluded low over Manitoba with a boundary stretching down to a
triple point in MN, and cold front down through IA back into
southwest KS...warm front stretches from the triple point into the I-
96 corridor of southern Michigan to a low over SW Quebec. Some
convective activity along/ahead of the cold front to our
west/southwest...with the evening convective activity overspreading
Michigan as it treks northeastward. Much drier/cooler across the
western US behind the cold front...with high pressure seeping into
the PacNW.
Broad expectation is for troughing to dig across the western/central
US today...reaching the Upper Midwest this evening and lifting
through the Upper Great Lakes into early Friday morning...with
attendant convective activity crossing the region...and primary
concern for a severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes. Can`t
rule out multiple rounds of convective activity crossing the
region...though expect the most vigorous will be in the
evening/overnight with the cold front. Upper troughing then looks to
focus itself into an upper low over northern Ontario for the
weekend, which looks to hang out over eastern Canada through the
period, with signals for a handful of PV maxima to dig through the
primary axis at times into early next week. This should broadly keep
things active across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...as well as a
touch cooler at times, especially compared to our current
conditions.
FORECAST DETAILS...
Heat today...barring unexpected cloud cover from upstream
convection, which certainly could happen... think highs have a shot
at reaching into the lower 90s, especially across NE Lower where
downsloping should be a factor. Dewpoints will be miserable as well,
well into the 60s across most of the area (could drop a tad with
some mixing this afternoon, especially if drier air aloft is able to
work in at all this morning). This should punch heat indices up into
the upper 90s to near 100F this afternoon, generally near/east of
West Branch down into Arenac and Iosco counties. If temps are capped
by cloud cover...will still feel very muggy/uncomfortable, though
heat indices would be somewhat lower. Stay cool and check on your
neighbors.
Strong/severe storm potential today/tonight... Think the primary
timeframe of concern for us will be this evening (~22-23z) into the
early overnight (~4-7z) as the upper trough approaches with the
attendant cold front and surface low, dependent on what happens
upstream this morning...with the main threat likely diminishing
behind the cold front from west to east after 6-9z (perhaps even as
late as 12z).
In the meantime, subtle boundary looks to drape across the region
today, trailing from the niblet lifting through Ontario attm back to
the Mid MS Valley. Will need to keep an eye on how far south this
drapes today as the generally zonal(ish) boundary in the presence of
S/SW flow aloft suggests discrete convective modes and an increased
risk for tornadoes wherever it lies...though would anticipate it
will buckle back northward at some point upstream this afternoon in
response to increased south/southwesterly flow ahead of the
anticipated PV maximum and attendant surface low. This also appears
to coincide with some signals for the low/mid-level capping to erode
in the evening over the area, and thus, could keep the tornadic
threat going after dark. Potential for lake breeze development today
could also allow for discrete convection to develop across NE Lower
this afternoon, if it can overcome the cap...and could see storms
crop as early as ~20-21z.
Generally appears there should be upscale growth into a more
organized convective complex in the afternoon/evening, most likely
starting just upstream over WI (as usual) and tracking east into
Lake MI/MI...though not impossible it could still be growing upscale
as it crosses MI. This would lend itself to a damaging wind threat,
generally coinciding with better deep-layer shear as the low-level
jet ramps up toward 50-60kts...though as mentioned above, a better
shot at surface based instability in the presence of lower LCLs
suggests embedded tornadoes will remain possible. Hail should be a
threat, particularly with organized supercellular-type features to
support hail growth...though deep warm cloud layers (through 13-
14kft) may limit larger hail sizes to some degree.
Also have heavy rain concerns, given the very moist environment
(pwats 1.5-2in again) with deep warm cloud layers and higher K
indices suggesting heavy rain is an additional threat on top of the
typical severe concerns. Think this will especially be the case if
we are able to get any warm advection wings to develop ahead of the
line (not uncommon ahead of linear MCSs), as it could certainly
focus heavier rains for a prolonged period of time.
Otherwise...for Friday...a few showers/storms could linger into the
morning hours with slightly renewed chances in the afternoon,
especially across the EUP with some PV moving through. Think some
activity will be possible Saturday with a PV max tracking through
the area; some showers/storms could develop along a boundary draping
in, especially during peak heating. Pwats could spike up toward 1-
1.5 inches again with this...so will need to keep an eye on
potential hydro concerns, esp. if these occur where any heavier rain
falls today/tonight.
Think periods of showers will be possible into the first part of
next week with additional perturbations dropping in Sunday and
Monday; temps should be much cooler as the 0C isotherm at 850mb
tries to droop in Sunday night into Monday...could be almost fall-
like for a bit? Appears we could hang onto some moisture to preclude
temps from dropping too much overnight early next week...but will
have to keep an eye on this going forward.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026
SHRA trends downward for tonight, leaving some areas of low
cloud in its wake. TAFs trend toward MVFR and IFR later tonight
as a result. CIGs lift into the morning, returning to VFR
through the day. Another area of low pressure and an associated
cold front will force another area of TSRA through the region
over the course of the evening, with continued TSRA likely
through the end of the forecast period. Not impossible to see
some LLWS as flow along / ahead of the front will accelerate.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
