National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
295
FXUS63 KAPX 200541
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
141 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry through Tuesday as high pressure builds.
-Blustery east winds Tuesday may present a fire risk, but will
likely be limited by ongoing greenup of vegetation across the
region.
-Unsettled weather returns later this week. Periods of light
scattered showers are expected to linger through the remainder of
the forecast period into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025
Blocky pattern continues to grace us with its presence... departing
cutoff low to our east has finally relinquished some of its grip on
the region for the time being, as surface high pressure has built in
from the north, along with considerable height rises. Result is an
area of subsidence that has induced dry NNE flow across the
Northwoods, currently scouring out what is left of an extremely
stubborn cloud deck from NE to SW. Breezy NNE winds to accompany
with some gusts of 15mph+ ongoing. Clear skies generally hold for
most tonight, which will allow for ample radiational cooling
responses across the board as dewpoints mix out this afternoon,
leaving a low floor for temps to bottom out on (and promoting
potential frost/freeze concerns). Another dry day tomorrow as this
dry airmass flexes one last time with east flow prevailing.
Meanwhile, surface low pressure currently spinning over Nebraska
will occlude today, and in the process, move northeastward rather
slowly into tomorrow, drumming up a conveyor of moisture transport
aloft... which will increase cloud cover across the SW parts of the
area later tomorrow. Highs tomorrow vary considerably... ranging
from the upper 40s to near 50 along the Lake Huron shore, warming as
one heads west, peaking in the lower 60s across the western CWA
courtesy of downsloping. East winds will be a bit breezy...
Sustained 15-20mph at times, with some gusts approaching 30mph... so
definitely a chill in the air. In addition, this may promote
wildfire growth as RHs dip into the 20s in places, though with
greenup underway and recent rains, this will be muted some,
especially in areas that saw the greatest rainfall amounts.
Frost Concerns Tonight: Aforementioned clearing and dry trend
tonight will allow for efficient radiational cooling to transpire
tonight, and with temperatures not really topping out that high
(generally in the 50s to near 60), and with dewpoints dropping into
the 20s, that will allow for temperatures to fall pretty quickly
this evening... and well into the 30s by 06-07z. The issue is then
an increasingly pinched pressure gradient promoting the acceleration
of easterly flow with time tonight, which would wind up hindering
radiational cooling processes, and actually may warm temperatures
slightly as we head into daybreak. Considering the narrow window for
frost to occur, will withhold from a frost advisory tonight, though
that headline may arise if confidence increases by this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025
Aforementioned occluding cyclone will continue its eastward trek
into Iowa and eventually Illinois by Wednesday, which will keep a
concentrated corridor of moisture transport... somewhere in the
vicinity of mid Michigan, seeping northward into the far southern
portions of the CWA. Result will be some passing showers south of M-
72 Wednesday, while areas north of here stick on the drier side of
things. The low closes off and broadens by Thursday, bringing a more
widespread chance for some showers, with the highest probs favoring
NE lower. Shower chances linger into Friday, perhaps even more
widespread in coverage, before the system finally begins to exit
eastward Saturday, but not enough to prevent additional showers from
materializing in the afternoon as lingering low level moisture will
promote diurnal instability. Moisture finally looks to be scoured
out by Sunday to shrink shower potential to isolated coverage, and
we look to start next week on a dry note. As far as temperatures
go... well... no other way to put this, but below normal temps will
be the rule as clouds and showers stunt any solar heating across the
region. Highs Wednesday will range from 54 to 64, and actually be
warmest in the eastern Yoop. Thursday and Friday look rather chilly,
with some places perhaps struggling to breach 50 both days. An early
look at the holiday weekend shows temps looking to get back to the
55-65 range by Saturday, approaching 70 by Sunday and Monday... so
certainly a cooler Memorial Day weekend in the making ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies becoming SCT-
BKN250 through today. Winds 060-090 10-15G25KTs midday into the
afternoon. Chance for -SHRA/-RA late in the TAF cycle for KMBL
and KTVC with CIGs dropping to OVC050.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
tonight for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT
tonight for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
tonight for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
