National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KAPX 021905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal. A non-svr t-storm or two
possible into this evening eastern upper MI.

The sun continues to bake much of northern MI, mostly 80s out
there, with some coastal 70s and a few inland 90s. The warmest
places in northern lower MI have seen dew points plunge back into
40s, so as expected shallow low-level moisture has mixed out with
strong heating/mixing. Dew points are higher in eastern upper MI,
and a few showers/TSRA have formed just north and ne of the Sault.

Main precip threat is going to be over far eastern upper MI into
this evening. Near-term guidance continues to suggest better
instability plume will drift southward into eastern upper MI.
MlCape values of 500-750j/kg are expected, though with weak wind
fields and minimal deep shear (0-6km bulk shear less than 10kt).
This results in some convection in recent RAP/HRRR runs, mainly in
central and se Chippewa Co. Locally gusty winds will be possible
with any TSRA, given the relatively dry sub-cloud airmass.

The ongoing convection along the north and east shores of
Superior will decay with loss of heating, morphing into a band
nw-se band of accas and other remnant mid-clouds. Partly to
perhaps mostly cloudy conditions will migrate southward, into
eastern upper and far ne lower MI by midnight, and to CVX-GLR-
Standish by 7am. Nocturnal cooling at the top of the mid-level
cloud deck/moist layer will help sustain steep-ish lapse rates.
This mechanism can sometimes sustain spotty showers thru the
night (and especially overnight) hours. Most near-term models are
dry, and do not have pops in the forecast after 11pm except near
Drummond Isl. But it`s not impossible to have a stray shower or
two in parts of northern lower MI overnight.

Low mainly in the mid to upper 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...Waning Heat...

Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperatures.

High Impact Weather...Fire weather concerns.

The region will be on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge
this weekend. Upper level temperatures slowly back down by a couple
of degrees each day behind a moisture starved surface cold front
that moves through on Saturday. Can`t rule out a couple of showers
or storms in conjunction with this front, mainly across northwest
lower. Drier air then reestablishes itself for Sunday. Another
mainly moisture starved front moves through overnight Sunday into
Monday morning bringing another small chance for an isolated shower
or storm but nothing widespread or long lasting is expected. Still
very warm this weekend with highs in the mid and upper 80s Saturday
and the low and mid 80s Sunday. Highs Monday in the not as warm mid
70s to around 80.

Fire weather remains a concern this weekend, especially with the
lack of widespread rainfall over the last few weeks. It appears that
red flag conditions will fall just short but fire danger will remain
very high to extreme.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...Noticeably Cooler then Turning Warmer...

High Impact Weather...Patchy frost possible Tuesday night.

Fairly unusual pattern with upper level features retrograding
westward. This includes the "heat" ridge which was over us for a few
days and a developing upper level trough which will be off to our
east. This setup puts northern Michigan in a noticeably cooler north
northwest upper level flow for a few days. We may actually have a
day or two of below normal temperatures and a few spots have a
chance for patchy frost Tuesday night. Ridging then looks to
reestablish itself across the region by the end of the week
increasing temperatures once again. Rainfall chances appear to
remain in the slim to nil category.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023


Warm and dry air is in place across the region. As high pressure
up by Hudson Bay exerts a stronger influence, e to ne winds will
develop (especially Saturday). A stray TSRA might be possible near
ANJ this afternoon/evening. Otherwise VFR. Think there is enough
of a breeze to keep PLN from seeing fog reform late tonight.


Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

High pressure over Hudson Bay will start to exert a stronger
influence through the weekend and into early next week. A little
more of an e to ne breeze is expected. For now it appears we will
come up short of small craft advisory criteria, but things will
get bumpier, especially on Lk Huron south of Sturgeon Point Lt.





NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion