National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 042035
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
435 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...Clearing tonight, sunshine returns Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Sharp short-wave ridging/narrow ridge
of warm air continues to progress through the central Great Lakes
downstream from broader troughing/cold air rotating through the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Short-wave trough/1.5 pv anomaly is
swinging up through Ontario/Manitoba with a weak-ish area of low
pressure across northern Ontario and cold front that arcs down
into Lake Huron (front just passed through APN a short time ago).
Narrow corridor of light precipitation along and behind through
front has been gradually passing through the forecast area.
Largely of the liquid variety although there was a period of snow
in eastern Upper Michigan and light accumulation reported in the
Soo area.

Upstream, high pressure and substantially drier air is just across
the lake with a sharp clearing line already pushing into Lake
Michigan. Some lake cloudiness is across central/eastern Lake
Superior. No lake induced precip on radar, although ERY continues
to report -SN.

Cold front and attending light precipitation will continue to
slide off the Lake Huron coast and east of the region heading into
the evening. High pressure and substantially drier air build into
the region tonight and dominate through Sunday.

Details: No big changes to the going forecast. Cold front and
attending light precip will slide east of the region this evening
while cooler and substantially drier air overspreading the region
tonight. We should see a fair amount of clearing skies as we go
through the night although with todays rainfall and minimal mixing
there might be some lingering low level moisture/stratus hanging
around through the night into Sunday morning.

High pressure and a fairly dry airmass dominate the region on
Sunday with forecast sounding temp/dewpoint profiles substantially
"opening up" through the day. Any lingering stratus that may be
lingering around Sunday morning will quickly erode/mix out
through the morning...with abundant sunshine anticipated
thereafter. This will lead to temperatures easily rebounding into
the middle 40s to middle 50s for high temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...Slightly above normal temperatures...

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Forecast Concerns...Pops through the period.

Surface high pressure holds across the region through the first half
of Sunday night yielding mostly clear skies and when combined with
light winds, cold overnight low temperatures. Increasing mid/high
clouds late Sunday night. Various short waves moving by to our north
and south Monday into Tuesday will bring chances for a few rain
showers. High temperatures are expected to generally be a few
degrees above average in the upper 40s to the upper 50s. Cold as
mentioned above Sunday night with lows ranging from the upper teens
in low lying spots to the mid 20s. Lows Monday night in the milder
30s for the most part.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...Turning colder...

High Impact Weather...Minimal as of now.

Forecast Concerns...How chilly it will turn late next week and
whether or not we`ll see any snow.

Zonal flow from early in the week will be replaced with a long wave
trough aloft from mid week into next weekend (at a minimum). This
trough will be the conduit for sending modified chunks of arctic air
into the Great Lakes region. In addition, upper level disturbances
moving through the flow will bring chances for precipitation in the
form of rain and snow showers. Some spots could even see a little
snow accumulation Thursday night into Friday (which would not be
totally unusual). After one more mild day Wednesday, temperatures
are expected to be several degrees below average for the remainder
of the forecast period. Unfortunately to many peoples dismay, the
pattern looks like it will remain chilly through the middle of the
month.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Surface cold front is just passing just east of the I-75 corridor
as of 18Z. Narrow corridor of showers and IFR CIGS with the front
will impact the terminal sites over the next few hours. However.
sharply drier air and high pressure is just upstream across Lake
Michigan. Clearing line will work across the region later this
afternoon/this evening and bring a return to VFR weather at all
terminal sites tonight through Sunday.

Winds behind the front are already northerly at PLN/TVC/MBL. Still
easterly at APN with a bit of a lake breeze component. But winds
will sharply turn northerly there as well in the next couple of
hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Behind a departing cold front, gustier north/northwesterly winds
will impact the the region tonight leading to a period of marginal
small craft advisory conditions on parts of the Great Lakes.
Winds/waves weaken substantially on Sunday with no marine impacts
expected through the first half of the week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion