National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KAPX 261045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

...Dry thru tonight with near seasonal temps...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure has reached James Bay early
this morning. Associated cold front has pushed just SE of our CWA.
The arrival of drier air and building subsidence in the wake of this
front has brought an end to all precip across our CWA and has
resulted in mainly clear skies across the Western Great Lakes region.

Little will change today and tonight as high pressure and dry air
thru the column remain firmly in control. Skies will remain mostly
clear thru tonight...with no precip expected. CAA in the wake of the
cold front will result in a noticeably cooler but still rather
pleasant day across the Northwoods. Afternoon highs will warm into
the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon...with overnight lows in
the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms possible Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Timing of precipitation Monday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...

High pressure and dry air will give way to an area of low pressure
from the central Great Plains and return flow Monday. Models are in
decent agreement with increased cloudiness during the morning hours
and precipitation beginning during the afternoon/early evening hours
as it spreads southwest to northeast. A warm front from
aforementioned low pressure will produce chances of showers and
possibly thunderstorms as it treks closer to northern Michigan.
Highest chances for heavier rain and thunder will be Tuesday as
PWATS creep to near 1.50 inches and synoptic forcings improve. High
temperatures will be a bit cooler than Sunday. Temperatures will
only warm into the 60s for both Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. An overall wet and cool-ish
week ahead.

Northern Michigan will remain on the northern periphery of ridging
anchored over the SE/Gulf coast states through at least midweek with
more of less zonal flow across the Great Lakes and stalled boundary
draped across the lower lakes/Ohio Valley region. Longer range
guidance continues to advertise a fairly substantial closed low and
core of cold air dropping down out of Canada into the Great Lakes
for the latter half of the week. Temperatures look to continue to be
below normal...only reaching into the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

High pressure...subsidence and drier air will continue to build
into Northern Michigan over the next 24 hours...resulting in dry
weather and solid VFR conditions. NW wind AOB 10 kts today will
become light/variable tonight.


Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Monday night.
Building high pressure will result in no precip today...tonight and
Monday morning. A warm front and associated moisture will lift
northward into the Western Great Lakes region on Monday...providing
our next chance of precip beginning Monday afternoon.





NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion