National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
558
FXUS63 KAPX 200731
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Getting colder yet with more lake effect snows
- Cold Temperatures and wind chills through Wednesday morning.
- Lake effect snow through at least tonight.
- Watching widespread/ synoptic snow potential for the latter half
of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 231 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
...Very cold with accumulating lake effect snow showers...
Coldest air of the season continues to spill into much of the US
early this morning as the heart of the arctic airmass begins to drop
out of South Central Canada and into the Northern Plains...Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Northern Great Lakes. NW flow lake effect
snow showers continue to stream into our typical snowbelt regions.
Persistent/dominant lake snow band is repeatedly hammering Antrim
county with the heaviest snowfall. Temps are mainly in the single
digits above and below zero.
Strong CAA will persist thru today and tonight...with 850 mb temps
dropping another few degrees into the negative upper 20s (C) across
our CWA over the next 24 hours. Sharp upper level trough axis will
swing thru Michigan tonight as the core of the arctic airmass/
coldest temps arrive. Deep cyclonic flow will hold over our area
thru tonight (at least). Near term models show sharp lake aggregate
troughing remaining in place over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior
for the next 24 hours...providing continued enhanced low level
convergence across this area. Maintenance of arctic airmass/temps
across our area will keep snowflake size small...with inversion
heights holding around 7-8 kft.
Near term models still point toward low level winds backing slightly
to a more straight westerly trajectory this morning...resulting in a
northward shift of the heaviest snow bands into locations along and
north of M-32 across far Northern Lower Michigan. This evolution
matches well with Winter Wx Advisories and the Winter Storm
Warning for Antrim county already in place for today into this
evening. Maintenance of sharp lake aggregate troughing across
Eastern Upper Michigan also suggests additional advisory level
snowfall and ongoing Winter Wx Advisory for Western Chippewa
county thru this evening is a good bet. Will maintain all
headlines as is for now...with the Winter Wx Advisory for
Kalkaska dropping off at 12Z this morning as backing winds will
likely pull heavier snow showers out of that area.
Will certainly maintain all Cold Wx Advisories for our entire CWA
given the projected temps thru Wednesday. High temps today will only
reach into the single digits above zero...with low temps tonight
dropping mainly into the single digits below zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
The bitterly cold pattern will continue into mid-week followed by
slowly modifying temperatures late week into the first half of next
weekend. Slightly colder air is then expected to round out the
weekend. Another shot of brutally cold arctic air is then possible
just beyond the scope of this forecast as we head toward the end of
the month. In the meantime, more of the same with additional lake
effect snow (and low visibility) along with brutally cold
temperatures into Wednesday. Westerly flow Tuesday morning backs
more southwest Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Could see
another few inches of accumulation Tuesday into Tuesday night in
targeted areas (which will be shifting closer to the Lake Michigan
shoreline Tuesday afternoon). A short wave moving through the flow
aloft Wednesday will bring with it another shot of moisture likely
leading to an increased coverage of the snow showers. You guessed
it, more lake effect continues late week with some enhancement
possible Saturday from yet another short wave. So overall, although
no major weather systems are expected over the next several days,
there will still likely be some localized decent lake effect snow
accumulations (along with low visibility). The very cold
temperatures early in the long term will relent for a bit but likely
return Sunday into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025
Lake convection to continue in cold air coming across the upper
Lakes. KPLN/KTVC/KMBL will be impacted by snow bands coming in
off Lake Michigan with periods of IFR visibilities in heavier
snow showers. KCIU/KAPN expected to remain VFR into Monday
morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-
017-020-022-025-031-086-099.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ342-344>346.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JPB
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
