National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 170311
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1111 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Cool high pressure continues to build southward out of Canada into
Northern Michigan late this evening in the wake of a departing low
pressure system. Some light rain showers are still falling across
southern sections of our CWA along and south of M-55...but these
showers will be ending over the next couple of hours as subsidence
and drier air take over. Much of our CWA will become mostly clear
overnight...with the exception of our far southern CWA where some
bkn VFR cigs will remain overnight. Expect another cool night
across the Northwoods with overnight lows falling into the 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad mid and upper level troughing
encompasses much of the northern Conus early this afternoon.
Subtropical moisture plume and active baroclinic axis now displaced
well to our south as weak surface high pressure builds into the
northern Lakes. Embedded weak shortwaves within broader troughing
responsible for a few showers across the western Great Lakes, with
one convectively enhanced wave (from much earlier upstream
thunderstorms) now cutting northern lower Michigan. Just enough
attendant forcing and moisture to kick off a few sprinkles/very
light showers, although the vast majority of the area remains dry
with just some passing mid level clouds. A somewhat cool afternoon
by mid June standards, with current temperatures mostly in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Of course, light east winds are resulting in a bit
cooler conditions near Lake Huron.

Earlier mentioned weak Canadian surface high expected to continue to
build south, likely to be centered right across our area by Monday
morning. Combine that with development of some mid level ridging
ahead of digging northern Plains wave...and a dry, seasonably chilly
night is in-store for the northwoods.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges tonight: Addressing any
lingering light shower potential the remainder of this afternoon and
overnight cloud/temperature trends.

Details: Any lingering light showers will come to an end by early
this evening. Development of those surface and mid level high
pressures will also help scatter out the clouds overnight, with
mostly clear (north) to partly cloudy (south) expected. Light/calm
winds and those clearing skies will help drive a decent nocturnal
temperature response, with lows by morning ranging from the middle
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms across
portions of northern lower Michigan Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Two cutoff upper-level lows are expected
to be evident across NOAM come the start of the period Monday
morning with the initial wave spinning across Quebec and the
secondary low trekking along the Manitoba/North Dakota border. This
secondary wave is expected to become sheared out as it shifts east,
but may provide enough lingering synoptic support for a few light
showers at times heading into Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly tranquil
sensible weather is expected through midweek as high pressure
remains in control across much of the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Low end shower chances.

Fairly tranquil conditions expected across northern Michigan Monday
as high pressure continues to gradually sag into the region from the
north. Partly sunny skies and light winds are anticipated as high
temps top out in the low-mid 70s...generally a couple degrees below
mid-June normals.

The aforementioned second wave near the Manitoba/ North Dakota
border will slowly become absorbed by larger scale parent energy
over Quebec late Monday into Monday night. However, lingering
forcing for ascent may be enough to kick off a few scattered showers
across eastern upper late Monday night into Tuesday morning,
although would expect most areas to remain dry. Perhaps a few
additional showers developing across interior northern lower due to
a combination of aforementioned lingering energy passing overhead
and lake breeze development expected off of both Lake Michigan and
Huron. The GFS is by far most bullish with the idea of shower
development, and will likely hinge on the amount of moisture able to
pool across area prior to enough lift arriving from the weakening
wave aloft and/or lake breeze development during the afternoon
hours. None the less, will introduce a slight chance of showers
Tuesday afternoon across inland northern lower. High temps Tuesday
topping out in the mid-upper 70s for most...cooler across eastern
upper and nearest the big lakes.

Perhaps a few showers and/or storms possible once again during the
day Wednesday, primarily inland once again given expected lake
breeze development once again. Perhaps a little bit of added forcing
nearby as low pressure slowly begins to creep toward the Great Lakes
from the mid-Mississippi Valley. High temps again in the 70s area-
wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Occasional shower chances continue at times through remainder of the
week into next weekend as several systems pass through the Great
Lakes and/or Ohio Valley. However, plenty of dry time is expected as
well, which will be not be well represented in the gridded forecast
as nearly every period will be littered with some sort of small
shower chance, while fully knowing that many locations may very well
stay completely dry through this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High pressure and drier air will continue to build into Northern
Michigan overnight in the wake of departing low pressure. VFR
conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites
overnight thru Monday night as subsidence strengthens in an
increasingly dry airmass. Winds will remain under 10 kts and
generally from the NE over the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Outside of a few passing light showers at times, no
significant marine concerns for the next several days. Light
pressure gradient will likely result in afternoon lake breeze
development the next few afternoons.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion