National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
520
FXUS63 KAPX 121830
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
230 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extended period of warm and dry conditions with potential
record breaking warm temperatures this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
A ridge extending from the east coast stretches across the
Great Lakes region and builds through the period. Looking at
this mornings sounding, it is evident that the Northwoods are
very dry from the aforementioned ridge. As such, this evening
into Friday will be quiet with little in the way of impactful
weather with a warming temperature trend. Wildfire smoke
continues to be aloft through the period and will vary in
thickness continuing to make the temperature forecast
challenging. Have overnight lows for tonight dropping to the
50s/ low 60s with Fridays temperatures in the mid to high 80s
with some areas possibly reaching the 90s. Thinking that Friday
will be very similar to today`s weather (Thursday) but perhaps
slightly warmer depending on the aforementioned smoke. With high
pressure overhead and weak flow, patchy fog will likely develop
again tonight and into the early morning hours before burning
off as the sun rises Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:
One amplified and slow moving long-wave pattern continues to
unfold across central NOAM...consisting of west coast centered
troughing and building central/east NOAM centered ridging. These
large scale features will essentially lock-in place for the
next week or more...aided by a continuous reloading of primary
western troughing. While upper level configuration itself argues
for above normal early fall warmth, persistent southerly flow
around semi-permanent northeast Conus centered high pressure
will only add to the warming cause as we head into this weekend
and next week.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Minimal through the duration, with primary focus centered on
temperature trends.
Details:
Nearly full suite of mid-range guidance and attendant ensembles
show continued well above normal temperatures across the
Northwoods through the duration of this long term period (and
potentially even well beyond). Pattern recognition of continuous
reloading of western trough and possible additional west
Atlantic tropical activity further supports this idea...forcing
mid and upper level ridge to remain centered across the Great
Lakes. This also supports a very dry pattern, with all forcing
and deep layer moisture remaining well to our west and south.
Combination of increasingly dry soil conditions and thermal
progs through the vertical support widespread highs well up into
the 70s and 80s through next week (values that are a good 10 or
more degrees above normal). Those increasingly dry soil
conditions should result in a respectable nocturnal temperature
response each night, with lows mostly ranging through the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
VFR conditions expected through most of the period, with
possible MVFR/IFR conditions in any patchy dense fog late
tonight/ Friday morning. Mainly light southwest winds between
5-10 mph are expected today with lake breeze formation pushing
inland during the afternoon. Little to no cloud cover is
anticipated with Wildfire smoke persisting aloft and varying in
thickness. Aformentioned smoke is not expected to impact flight
categories at this time. Some patchy fog could develop late
tonight and early Friday, so this potential is reflected in the
TAFs (KCIU/ KPLN/ KMBL). Higher confidence is had in fog
developing for KCIU due to more residual moisture left in the
atmosphere.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...NSC
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
