National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
038
FXUS63 KAPX 251820
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
220 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered shower and storm chances through Sunday, much better
storm chances Sunday night through Monday evening. Severe
storms possible.
- Dry weather and quiet weather returns through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
An expansive upper ridge over the desert southwest with record
warmth over parts of the western CONUS. Downstream troughing to the
east, placing the Great Lakes in an active west to northwest
upper flow pattern. As is typical in mid summer patterns, a
challenging forecast with weak forcing and somewhat nebulous
triggers. This will change by Monday with a stronger shortwave
and surface frontal passage.
A weak mid level shortwave and washed out surface frontal boundary
may bring a few showers or a storm across the area tonight.
Instability is rather anemic and we remain at least weakly capped
through the first part of tonight. But there may be enough moisture
pooling along the boundary (evident in narrow 925-850mb theta e
ridge) and forcing along the weakish boundary to produce
scattered precipitation. Sunday will likely be relatively quiet
for much of the day as instability increases under broad warm
air advection but weak forcing limits storm development.
That changes by Sunday night and Monday, with much better
shower and storm chances as a robust shortwave dives across the
Great Lakes. Models are coming into better agreement, although
still some differences in the strength of this feature and the
attendant surface reflection, which will certainly have a large
impact on the scope of precipitation development (and severity).
Increasing mid level westerlies, steepening lapse rates and
favorable kinematics within broad low level warm air advection,
support a severe storm threat Sunday night through Monday night,
with damaging winds and large hail possible. Many question
marks on the overall evolution of the convection, given the
uncertainty in the strength of the approaching shortwave and the
placement of boundaries from earlier storms. The convection may
eventually transition into an MCS as it pushes southward
through Michigan.
We will likely see some smoke make a return to the area as well over
the next few days, although the source region for this smoke is more
Pacific Northwest versus northern Ontario. Any smoke that returns
doesn`t look nearly as thick as what was experienced a few weeks
ago.
Otherwise, quieter weather returns through midweek with high
pressure in control.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Only concern remains the potential for some MVFR to IFR
producing low clouds and mist early Sunday morning. Have
introduced this concern, especially at KCIU, KPLN, and KMBL. Low
clouds and mist should mix out rather quickly after sunrise
Sunday. Otherwise, may see an isolated shower or two tonight,
but any impacts should be minimal. Gusty southwest winds this
afternoon become light tonight and Sunday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
342-344>346.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
