NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
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Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS03 KWNS 260727
SWODY3
SPC AC 260726
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX
INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
across a broad area from northeast Texas into parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes will all be possible.
...Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley...
A broad region of at least some severe potential is expected on
Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley.
Uncertainty remains high due to the influence of extensive
antecedent convection leading into the D3/Sunday period.
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley
on Sunday. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially
farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe
threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward
the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable
moisture/instability will be in place.
Widespread cloudiness/convection across much of the warm sector will
tend to limit diurnal destabilization, though deep-layer shear will
remain favorable for organized storms, and some
heating/destabilization will be possible in the wake of morning
convection.
One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the
ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS into western MO and
southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat
of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Vigorous redevelopment will also be possible along the
western/southern periphery of persistent convection near the
ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles
could support at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards.
Some threat could linger into Sunday night across this area,
potentially aided by an upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough that
will be approaching the southern Plains.
..Dean.. 04/26/2024
$$
