NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 230602
SWODY1
SPC AC 230600

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado, wind damage and isolated
large hail threat will be possible this afternoon from parts of the
central Gulf Coast States northeastward into the central
Appalachians. Marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts and
hail will also be possible in the Northeast and southern Plains.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern and Central
Appalachians...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the remnants of Cindy
to move north-northeastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
today. Scattered thunderstorms will be mostly concentrated on the
eastern side of the system where low-level flow is forecast to be
strongest. The latest model guidance shows a 40 to 50 kt jet which
is forecast move across middle Tennessee into southern Kentucky this
afternoon. This will create favorable low-level shear conditions for
rotating storms and a few tornadoes will be possible. Wind damage
may also occur as low-level lapse rates become steep. The greatest
severe threat should be from northern Alabama north-northeastward
into middle Tennessee, central Kentucky and southern Ohio along the
corridor of strongest instability.

...Northeast...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
Northeast today as a cold front advances eastward across the lower
Great Lakes. A corridor of low-level moisture is forecast ahead of
the front where surface dewpoints should be in the mid 60s to near
70 F. In response, a couple pockets of moderate instability will be
possible by afternoon ahead of the front. Model forecasts develop
scattered thunderstorms along the front and spread convection
eastward across the region during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
ahead of the front from Pittsburgh, PA to the Hudson Valley show
unidirectional wind profiles above the boundary layer with 0-6 km
shear forecast to be in the 30 to 40 kt range. This could be enough
for marginally severe multicells. Line segments that can develop and
persist may have potential to produce strong wind gusts during the
mid to late afternoon.

...Southern Plains...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern Plains
today as a cold front advances southward across the region. By
midday, the front is forecast to be located from southeast New
Mexico eastward into the low Rolling Plains. As surface heating
takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will
likely initiate along and just ahead of the front where the models
develop a narrow corridor of moderate instability. In addition,
forecast soundings on the Caprock of west Texas this afternoon show
directional shear in the lower to mid-levels which will contribute
to about 30 kt of deep-layer shear. This along with steep low-level
lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind damage threat. Hail
could also occur with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 06/23/2017

$$