NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 181947
SWODY1
SPC AC 181946

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday.

...20z Update...

The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes have been made
to the outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts
of southwest CO into northern AZ and northwest NM this afternoon and
evening.

..Leitman.. 03/18/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019/

...Southern Rockies/Four Corners Region...
Minimal buoyancy combined with orographic ascent could yield a
couple thunderstorms from the southern Rocky Mountains to the
Mogollon Rim of northern Arizona, mainly in the late afternoon to
early evening time frame.

$$