NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 281937
SWODY1
SPC AC 281936

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the
Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the
front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary
mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from
the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold
core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across
southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC
into early evening. 

No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West.

..Dean.. 03/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/

Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of
the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity.  A cold
front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with
associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by
mid-afternoon.  Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level
temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present.  No
severe storms are anticipated in either region.

$$