NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 200523
SPC AC 200521

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


A few weak thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
High pressure will maintain relatively cool and stable conditions
over the vast majority of the CONUS today, with a large upper
cyclone centered over James Bay. The more substantial low-level
moisture will remain largely offshore, the exception being across
parts of central and southern FL. Here, mid 60s F dewpoints and
heating will contribute to weak instability during the day, with the
tail end of an upper disturbance possibly aiding lift and the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms.

..Jewell/Nauslar.. 11/20/2018