NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 0100Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 180053
SPC AC 180052

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will continue across parts of the Great Basin
into the central Rockies, and along the coast of Oregon and northern
California, this evening and overnight.

...01Z Update...
The loss of daytime heating across eastern NV and western UT will
further reduce the already meager surface-based instability noted on
the 00Z sounding from Elko, NV. With the potential for strong to
damaging wind gusts from ongoing convective showers and
thunderstorms also lessening, have removed the Marginal risk from
this region. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible
across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the central Rockies
this evening and overnight as an upper trough moves over these
areas. Very isolated lightning strikes may also occur mainly this
evening along/near the coast of OR and northern CA.

..Gleason.. 01/18/2019