NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 191615
SWODY1
SPC AC 191613

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Texas and central
California coasts.

...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel trough will continue to drift eastward near the
northwest Gulf coast.  Though the weakly unstable warm sector and
the majority of the deep convection remains offshore, weak midlevel
buoyancy does extend inland over the TX coastal plain per the 12z
sounding at Corpus Christi.  Low-level warm advection should
maintain some weak midlevel convection, and the potential for
isolated lightning strikes, through early afternoon.

Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough is progressing
east-southeastward toward CA.  Low-topped convection accompanies the
midlevel thermal trough per satellite imagery, and a few lightning
flashes have been detected off the central CA coast as of 16z.  Weak
surface-based buoyancy will reach the immediate central CA coast
later today in conjunction with the steeper low-midlevel lapse
rates, though thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, at best.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 01/19/2018

$$