NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 0100Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 240056
SWODY1
SPC AC 240055

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS AREA......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe storms -- capable of producing locally
damaging wind gusts and marginal hail -- may persist for another few
hours across parts of southern High Plains including far West Texas.

...Southeast New Mexico and far West Texas and vicinity...
While a broad convective band extending from the north-central U.S.
south-southwest to far West Texas persists, overall/gradual
weakening of the convection continues with a combination of diurnal
cooling/stabilization, and outflow largely undercutting storms
across the northern and central U.S.

The most vigorous storms are ongoing across southeast New Mexico and
far West Texas at this time.  In this area, ample instability (1000
to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per objective analyses) and ample
deep-layer shear indicated across the area will continue to support
limited hail/wind risk.  Eventually, stabilization of the boundary
layer should result in a gradual ramp-down of convective
organization, but marginal severe risk may linger for the next 2-3
hours or so.

..Goss.. 09/24/2017

$$