NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 181601
SWODY1
SPC AC 181600

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts
of the Upper Midwest.

...NE/IA/IL...
A persistent cluster of thunderstorms is affecting much of northern
IA and adjacent regions this morning, with the leading-edge outflow
surging southward across eastern IA.  Much of this region has been
stabilized by the convection, leaving a corridor from eastern NE
into northwest IL where sufficient heating is possible later today. 
This axis may see storm intensification by mid/late afternoon, with
the strongest cells capable of hail or locally damaging wind gusts. 
Present indications are that the severe risk will remain isolated
and marginal in nature.

..Hart/Darrow.. 09/18/2018

$$