NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


091 
ACUS01 KWNS 191218
SWODY1
SPC AC 191217

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the CONUS.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone will move
across New England by early afternoon, while a trailing cold front
continues southeastward across FL.  Marginal low-level moisture,
warm temperature profiles aloft, and only shallow/weak forcing for
ascent along the front in FL suggest that thunderstorms are
unlikely.  Otherwise, a positive-tilt midlevel trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest coast overnight.  Forecast soundings from the
NAM/GFS/RAP show weak midlevel buoyancy after 03-06z (100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) within the pre-frontal warm
advection regime.  While an isolated lightning strike cannot be
ruled out, the overall thunderstorm threat appears too marginal to
warrant an outlook area.

..Thompson.. 11/19/2017

$$