NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
Day 1 Outlook | Day 2 Outlook | Day 3 Outlook | Days 4-8 Outlook |
|
||||||||
|
Forecast Discussion |
000 ACUS01 KWNS 191229 SWODY1 SPC AC 191227 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 $$